REFUTING THE BEST ARGUMENT AGAINST THE CLAIM THAT THE ROSWELL DEBRIS WAS EXOTIC
Sceptic’s argument in the following simulated debate between Skeptic and Believer¹ constitutes, in my opinion, the strongest argument against the claim that the Roswell debris was exotic or alien. But I think that there is a good rebuttal to it, and that in the process of rebutting it, we learn something important about the visitors’ intentions. The skeptic might say:
Skeptic. You have claimed that an otherworldly² craft crashed and left the debris on the Foster Ranch. The following is an argument against that claim:
Dr. Albert Crary, in his log for June 4, 1947 describes the launch of a “regular sonobuoy” in a cluster of balloons. This cluster was, according to available records, never recovered. Believer, none of the arguments that anyone has articulated clearly show that the cluster of June 4 did not carry ML-307 radar reflectors. In fact, there are good reasons for thinking both that it did and that it did not.
If it did carry such reflectors, however, then there is every reason to believe that they had tape with purple floral designs attached to them. Furthermore, there are good reasons to think that this flight was heading toward the Foster ranch when it disappeared and good reasons to think that it wasn’t. There is now no way to reconstruct its flight path, using meteorological data or from memory, with any degree of certainty. Therefore, it remains a distinct possibility that on June 4, 1947, a flight carrying ML-307 radar reflectors was released and was heading toward the Foster ranch when it disappeared.
Now consider the following: If the train of such a balloon cluster had landed on the Foster ranch, and had been shredded by the surface winds, then its remains would consist of short balsa-wood beams, quite possibly with tape — with purple floral designs on it — attached to the beams, metal foil, paper (backing on the foil), nylon twine, and possibly a box for ballast or plastic parts of such a box. But this matches exactly the gross properties of the Foster ranch debris. The actual Roswell debris (let’s ignore for now the debris that was photographed in Ramey’s office, since not everyone believes that that was the actual material), as everyone agrees, consisted of light balsa-like beams with purple designs on them, metal foil, a paper- or parchment-like material, tough string, a small box, and a bakelite-type material.
(a)If the Roswell debris was from a crashed otherworldly craft, then this amazing Mogul match was coincidental. (b)But the chances are infinitesimally tiny that a crashed exotic craft would just happen to leave wreckage that so closely and coincidentally matched, even in gross appearance, what may well have been the parts of a balloon train attached to a balloon that may well have disappeared in the same area at roughly the same time. It’s ridiculous to believe that such a fantastically incredible coincidence occurred. (C)So, no otherworldly craft crashed near Roswell in 1947. [a,b,c Modus Tolens]
And you have claimed that the materials that were recovered near Roswell in July of 1947, the bodies and the ship itself, were exotic, otherworldly. But as you must agree, (d)if the material was exotic, then a saucer crashed. And so, (e)the materials were not exotic. [d,c,e Modus Tolens]³
Believer. In fact, I agree with you (see b) that “it’s ridiculous to believe that such a fantastically incredible coincidence occurred,” and that, therefore (see c), “no otherworldly craft crashed near Roswell in 1947.” But you (see d) make the additional claim, and assume that I agree, that if the material was exotic, then a saucer crashed. But, in fact, I do not agree with this claim — it is simply not proven. For instance, if the debris was left by otherworldly beings to simulate a crash, i.e., if they staged the “crash,” then the debris could be exotic without there having been a crash (i.e., d would be false).
Skeptic. It’s certainly within the realm of possibility that the “crash” was staged by otherworldly beings. But when I said (at e) that the materials weren’t exotic, I meant, of course, that the chance of their being exotic was miniscule, and not worth considering. But you seem to be suggesting not merely that the idea that it was staged is possible, but that it is actually plausible. But that’s ridiculous. Ockham’s Razor simply rules it out. You have no reason to attribute the Roswell incident to otherworldly beings.
Believer. Actually, if that was all there was to my argument, then the idea of “otherworldly staging” would, indeed, be ruled out by Ockham’s Razor. But don’t forget that Ockham’s Razor states that the more complex explanation (the explanation that requires more novelties to be posited) is not to be chosen without necessity. But the fact that there is good evidence for the materials’ otherworldliness, that the reports by solid witnesses exist, makes it necessary to choose the more complex explanation, namely, the explanation that says that the “crash” was staged by exotic beings.
In other words, you proved that there couldn’t have been a crash, yet the witness reports prove that the debris was otherworldly. The only conclusion we can make is that the “crash” was staged by otherworldly beings.
Skeptic. To make plausible your notion that the “crash” was staged, you have to show why the otherworldly beings might want to stage such an incident.
Believer. No, I actually don’t have to show why they might have done it, because the conclusion that it was staged seems inescapable. But we might speculate on the motivation of the other-worldly entities. We might do this by looking at the result of the staging, assuming that the goal of these beings and the actual result are the same.
What, then, was the result of the alleged crash at Roswell? The result was a government cover-up of the entire otherworldly visitation phenomenon. We can possibly discern the entities’ plan, then:
“We wish,” they may have said to themselves, “to reveal our presence to the people of earth in our own way. So, to prevent the government of this land from disclosing our presence in some other way, we will bestow upon them an artifact that they will take to be a crashed ship, something that they would so zealously guard, that they would institute a program to cover up the entire phenomenon.”
Yet the debris on the Foster Ranch clearly did resemble parts of the missing Mogul balloon train. It can only be that the “crash” was designed to have three different effects: first, the debris forestalled any government disclosure; second, the Mogul match allowed the scientific and academic ranks to ignore the phenomenon; third, the incident spoke to those who could identify and solve the dilemma, showing these critical thinkers more about the otherworldly beings than even those in the government were aware of. The next question, then, is, among the non-governmental people, why are the critical thinkers singled out to receive this knowledge? For an answer to this question, please read my article, “The Birth of Helios.” To read my book on the arguments for and against “UFO reality,” in which I focus on three cases — Roswell, the Washington National Overflights and the Portage County Police UFO Chase — go to http://www.atrillionworlds.com/dialectical_books_contents_a.html.
Notes
1. Some ufologists and UFO enthusiasts object to the use of “believer” in this context. But belief is just an acceptance that a proposition is true — it says nothing about how that acceptance was arrived at. Belief is not in any way contrary to knowledge; knowledge is a species of belief.
2. I use “otherworldly” to cover all possible exotic origins, which include other planets, hidden places on earth, exotic mental realms, other dimensions and other times. (I, myself, believe that the entities are from other planets.)
3. from an argument by Kent Jeffrey: “Roswell — Anatomy of a Myth,” MUFON UFO Journal, no. 350, June 1997. pp.10–11